Well, here I am, a proud member of the New Democratic Party of Canada, watching the election night results. If you have been following, you can expect that I have mixed feelings. As I write this, it is certain that the Liberal Party will form the next government. To see Harper and his Conservatives go down to well-deserved defeat is sweet. I look forward to his concession speech so much I can hardly stand it.
As a New Democrat I would prefer that the Liberals do not form a majority government, so that they will rely on the NDP for support in the next Parliament. At the moment this does not seem likely. The NDP is losing most of the seats we gained in 2011, and we appear to be headed to a small rump.
For the benefit of my fellow progressives to the south, I'd like to offer my observations, below the NDP orange squiggle.
Tom Mulcair was my first choice to take the place of Jack Layton for the leadership of the party. I donated to him as well. I also backed Niki Ashton, but Tom was my first pick, and I'll tell you why:
- Tom seemed more electable. He made an electoral breakthrough in Québec, winning a by-election. He maybe didn't have Jack Layton's folksy charm, but he was very articulate, looked good on TV, and he was from Québec, where Jack had led the party to a huge victory before his death. - Tom had experience. He had lots of experience of government (granted, in part with other parties), but I used to be a Tory, so why not?
Tonight I am feeling buyer's remorse in the worst way. Tom ended up running to the right of the Liberals on several key issues: deficit spending, foreign affairs, the F-35 contract, and more. It's clear tonight that Canadians were done with Harper, and voted for the most anti-Harper they could find. It should have been the NDP, but it wasn't. It was the Liberals, because the NDP drifted to the right. And we got crushed.
Now, I have very little faith in Liberal Party promises; I've seen them run left and then rule right my whole life. And Justin Trudeau would never be where he is today if his name was Justin Smith. But I will say a few things to my fellow progressives in the US:
- The electorate is volatile. There are very few voters who vote by tradition anymore. You can't count on the folks who voted for you the last time to vote for you again. - The electorate is moving to the left. We've seen this in Europe, and now we are seeing it in North America. They know they are being screwed, and the party that best responds to this has the best chance. - Electability, based on polls, can and will change in a heartbeat. At the outset of this campaign the NDP was in great shape. And then we blew it. - The Cons probably chose to fight this 3-month campaign because they had the most money and they thought a barrage of ads would win it for them. They lost, by a lot. As Kos says, ads don't matter much anymore. It's a new world.
As a democratic socialist, I'm a big fan of Sanders. I hope these observations may help his campaign and his supporters going forward. Up here, we have a lot of rebuilding to do.